Keeping Panic Down with Misinformation

Someone should show this diagram to the Arkansas Department of Health.

Good news!   Arkansas is safe for now from Avian Flu.   The bad news is that the person in charge of Public Health in Arkansas either doesn't know what she is talking about or doesn't care if she confuses people as long as they can go to bed with smiles on their faces.   Last week,  Arkansas Department of Health Director of Communicable Disease, Sandra Snow,  said this:

"I think everybody is confused over [the bird flu]. I'm afraid it's because they don't understand it," Snow said. "The bird flu is an influenza that can attack poultry and occasionally can be seen in the United States, but it hasn't been seen in 20 years in Arkansas."

 

According to the Centers for Disease Control, avian influenza are viruses that happen naturally within birds, carried in their intestines.  The disease is spread by contact with an infected bird's bodily excretions.

"In Asia they are having a problem with avian flu and apparently [wild birds] are passing it on to chickens,"  Snow said, adding that humans can only get avian flu by close, extended contact with infected birds.

Whew.    So if you're not in close, extended contact with an infected bird, then you're safe because you can ONLY get it that way.   Of course, that part isn't in quote so Ms. Snow may have been misquoted because she goes on to say - in quotes:

"With this we have seen cases in Asia only.  It is very difficult to get," Snow said. "There have been a few person to person.   Other than that, it is passed from bird to person."

Snow said government health officials are also watching the virus closely to see if it changes.

"If that happens there will be a problem, but right now it is a bird to human passage," Snow said.

Except when it isn't.    From Effect Measure:

Most observers believed this was a cluster of human to human (H2H) transmission. With the three children, one at least a contact with another case, the possibility becomes a probability.

Snow went on:                         

"We do not have a vaccine for it yet, but they are certainly working on it," Snow said. "We do know currently that if the avian flu should reach here it will respond to Tamiflu."

Except when it doesn't.   From Effect Measure again:

On the other hand, this drug is not likely to be much use except on the margins and for some people. It needs to be taken continuously for prophylactic effect when exposure is prevalent in the community so compliance will be an issue as will cost. The dose required for whatever virus becomes the pandemic strain is also uncertain. Its main use is likely to be in health care workers and other critical personnel and possibly in household members of those who are ill.

There's a constant and understandable struggle in government between the risk of panic and  the risk of whatever doomsday scenario about which the government is  trying to educate the public.   (NB: exceptions for Team BushCo include  politically motivated terror alerts)   So far it looks like leadership on many levels is choosing to sing lullabies instead of choosing to rise above their own fears to  trust the American people to deal with a serious situation that requires equally serious planning and sacrifice.   

If our current leaders are unable to find the talent for doing that within themselves, they must find people who are capable of doing so.  We need inspiration to build community and trust each other.  We need to trust that our governments at all levels will cooperate and at least  have basic  plans in place to get us through this with a minimum loss of life and with a minimum disturbance to necessities like power, water and medicine.   We don't need  threats of martial law and certainly not misinformation about the threat we are facing.

Comments

[DavidByron]

It's Arkansas: they don't believe in evolution remember? So that middle step in your diagram can't possibly happen unless you have a little red circle with God's.. oops an "intelligent design" hand. But why would Mr Intelligent Design want to kill people in Arkansas anyway? Mo Gays or Blacks or licensious lifestyles there, right?

In any case there's no point warning anyone about it if there's nothing they can do about it. I haven't found even the Flu Wiki to be all that helpful in that regard but maybe that's me. I've certainly seen nothing about it on TV.

For example my wife asks me if we should buy some tamiflu which she says she can get. It doesn't strike me as particularly a good idea unless you're loaded. Another question would be is there really much point in buying a nanomask for the smaller size of filter if you are probably not going to wear it properly anyway?

[eRobin]

I want the nanomasks from emergency filtration. I figure I can use them correctly. But your point is good - if you don't use them correctly, you could be doing more harm than good.

I'm not going to do the Tamiflu.