by Jerome a Paris:
There have been a few (!!) diaries about Iran recently, but I'd like to summarise things in a short diary.1. War is not justified; quite the opposite, Iran's position is much more legitimate;
2. War would be disastrous for everybody;
3. Everybody knows it and acts accordingly.(by war, I mean any act of military aggression, whether aerial bombings, a ground attack or a nuclear strike)
Let's hope he's getting better than when he predicted $100 a barrel oil over the Iraq war. I guess I am not as optimistic.
I notice part way through this he refers to the US insane nuclear foreign policy which is basically global nuclear terrorism. No doubt many will aprove of the diary without really having the penny drop. "Be reasonable, because we won't be" goes a long way back as a US nuclear policy.
If Americans proclaim Kennedy a hero for taking a gamble that would make them shake their heads in dismay if the same odds were taken by a contestant on "Deal or No Deal", but of course playing for the lives of everyone in the world instead of $200,000 -- if that sort of psychotic penis wagging makes for a "great war time president" then why wouldn't Bush go for it?
The alternative is that he'll have to wuss out.
Certainly Bush is no man of his word (150+ threats of a veto so far) but he does seem to get off on this war president thing. This is the time when a president comes to think of what his legacy will be after all. He looks at the Iranian president and sees himself - a bully. He realises he would only respond to force.
And finally what about all this obvious media build-up of a coming war? Why would Bush go through all the rolling out of a new product like this if there was ultimately just going to be nothing? It sure as hell isn't to try and bluff.
Posted by: DavidByron | April 15, 2006 at 09:10 AM
Jerome has ideas I don't agree with but he has some ideas I think are insightful. His take down of all the Iranian Bourse talk is funny to read.
I think he's right about peak oil. (agri-fuel ain't gonna do it)
It isn't only the US who have maintained a policy of Drop Dead or We'll Kill You. That's the position of everyone in power. There's no high ground when it comes to this.
I still think it's all a big bluff. It gets them points with the Kill'em all crowd! It's easy to declare victory in a war of words. That asshole in Iran is more than happy to play his part, which is good for the assholes in Washington. And when's the last time you heard anyone talk about anything except this? Oh, and it puts the spineless Dems in an identical position to the one they were in in 2002. It's brilliant.
Posted by: eRobin | April 15, 2006 at 10:06 AM
I actually prefered the comments in < aheref="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/4/15/0552/70144">this diary more.
And also Soj's but I'm sure her diary will get on the recommended list. It's a slam dunk. It has pretty graphics, fresh information, it's written by a woman with some name recognition based on similar diaries in the past nine months.
And that could be you within 15 months time Robin. Soj was doing her thing in pretty much obscurity for ages before she figured she needed to put herself out there more. Just like you.
Oops. Just checked and it's already top of the recommended list. That was fast. She's beating out MSOC. And the Orwell diary's there too. The diary itself isn't up to much but some of the comments are excellent.
I think you could be writing the front page of dKos by 2009 if a better gig hasn't opened up by then. I'm guessing you wouldn't want to, but you'd be asked.
Posted by: DavidByron | April 15, 2006 at 10:22 AM
I don't really get what he is saying about the Bourse. So people will think in dollars, so what? The point is they have to actually buy euros regardless of what the "thought" in. It's the purchasing that counts and once the dollars have been "thought" about they never actually get purchased.
It isn't only the US who have maintained a policy of Drop Dead or We'll Kill You. That's the position of everyone in power. There's no high ground when it comes to this.
The Soviets didn't have a first strike policy. The Soviets didn't act insane. Just as well because if they really did act like the Americans this planet would be a nuclear wasteland right about now and for thext few thousand years.
The whole point of playing nuclear chicken (or any kind of chicken) is that it only works if one person is insane. If two insane people ever play it then it's the end of the world as we know it.
That could still happen very easily indeed. in fact America is practically begging other countries to go "insane" too.
Oh, and it puts the spineless Dems in an identical position to the one they were in in 2002. It's brilliant.
Well that's a good point. The first one I've heard favouring no war. Hope you're right.
Posted by: DavidByron | April 15, 2006 at 10:32 AM
The whole point of playing nuclear chicken (or any kind of chicken) is that it only works if one person is insane. If two insane people ever play it then it's the end of the world as we know it.
Did you ever read Friedman on that? He's such a moron. He was actually saying that he's glad we've got a president that threw away the steering wheel - as long as he remembers that he's driving without one. He's certifiable.
Posted by: eRobin | April 16, 2006 at 10:25 AM